Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak.
Identifieur interne : 002593 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002592; suivant : 002594Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak.
Auteurs : Tridip Sardar [Inde] ; Sk Shahid Nadim [Inde] ; Sourav Rana [Inde] ; Joydev Chattopadhyay [Inde]Source :
- Chaos, solitons, and fractals [ 0960-0779 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R0). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on R0. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (Rt ) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110078
PubMed: 32834620
PubMed Central: PMC7345298
Affiliations:
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study on COVID-19 outbreak.</title><author><name sortKey="Sardar, Tridip" sort="Sardar, Tridip" uniqKey="Sardar T" first="Tridip" last="Sardar">Tridip Sardar</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Dinabandhu Andrews College, Kolkata, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Dinabandhu Andrews College, Kolkata</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kolkata</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nadim, Sk Shahid" sort="Nadim, Sk Shahid" uniqKey="Nadim S" first="Sk Shahid" last="Nadim">Sk Shahid Nadim</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kolkata</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rana, Sourav" sort="Rana, Sourav" uniqKey="Rana S" first="Sourav" last="Rana">Sourav Rana</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan, West Bengal, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan, West Bengal</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>West Bengal</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chattopadhyay, Joydev" sort="Chattopadhyay, Joydev" uniqKey="Chattopadhyay J" first="Joydev" last="Chattopadhyay">Joydev Chattopadhyay</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kolkata</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Chaos, solitons, and fractals</title><idno type="ISSN">0960-0779</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (<i>R</i><sub>0</sub>). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (<i>R<sub>t</sub></i> ) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32834620</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>05</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0960-0779</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>139</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Oct</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Chaos, solitons, and fractals</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Chaos Solitons Fractals</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>110078</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110078</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (<i>R</i><sub>0</sub>). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (<i>R<sub>t</sub></i> ) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sardar</LastName><ForeName>Tridip</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Dinabandhu Andrews College, Kolkata, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nadim</LastName><ForeName>Sk Shahid</ForeName><Initials>SS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rana</LastName><ForeName>Sourav</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Statistics, Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan, West Bengal, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chattopadhyay</LastName><ForeName>Joydev</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>08</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Chaos Solitons Fractals</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>100971564</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0960-0779</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Lockdown effect</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Outbreak containment policy</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>All the authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>09</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32834620</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110078</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0960-0779(20)30475-6</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">110078</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7345298</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
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